Study predicts 54 million autonomous cars by 2035 – LeftLane News

Posted: Monday, January 06, 2014

An automotive trends research firm is predicting a rapid rise in self-driving vehicles in the coming years, culminating in the near complete takeover of autonomous cars worldwide by 2050.

The shift will be exponential, according to the firm, IHS Automotive and an article in the Detroit News. Its study, titled “”Emerging Technologies: Autonomous Cars — Not If, But When,” the predicted timeline is as follows:

  • By 2025 global sales of self-driving cars will be around 230,000, accounting for 0.2 percent of sales. The technology will add $7,000 to $10,000 to a car’s sticker price.
  • By 2030, the first completely autonomous cars with no driver controls will go on sale. The price premium for the technology will drop to around $5,000.
  • By 2035, 9.2 percent of new cars sold will be semi or completely autonomous, a figure of 54 million globally, and the price for the technology will be down to $3,000 per car. The North American market will have about 29 percent of those sales, or approximately 3.5 million vehicles, while China will account for 24 percent or 2.8 million vehicles and Western Europe 20 percent or 2.4 million vehicles.
  • Sometime around 2050, nearly all private and commercial vehicles on the roads will be self-driving.

Nissan has already promised that it will begin selling autonomous cars in 2020 and has already shown the press a self-driving Leaf electric vehicle. Google has also tested self-driving cars extensively, logging 500,000 miles. GM, on the other hand, says that the technology will not be available in the foreseeable future.


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