Are Electric Car Sales About To Accelerate? Why Some Forecasters Are Hopeful — And Wrong – Forbes

Posted: Wednesday, January 04, 2017

A Tesla Model S P100D at a press event for CES 2017 in Las Vegas. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

Here’s a prediction for 2017: More forecasters will say electric car demand is about to take off, but actual sales will remain in low gear.

Admittedly, before the end of the year, Tesla’s little Model 3 will likely appear and generate much excitement and hype amongst early adopters. And by then a Chevrolet Bolt will have been seen on the road by many. But the framework for battery electric take-off will still be threadbare as car buyers measure electric car utility against the amount of money they are willing to part with.

Another report released today, from consultants McKinsey, on the eve of the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, predicts a glowing future for battery electric cars and reckons it has discovered pent-up demand for electrified vehicles.

“Consumer demand is starting to shift in favor of electric vehicles, with strong disruption potential,” said the report.

But the evidence cited is a touch flimsy, or maybe hopeful.

“Around half of consumers in the U.S. and Germany say they know how electrified vehicles and related technology work versus 100% of consumers for internal combustion engine (ICE) powered vehicles. Between almost 30% and 45% of vehicle consumers in the U.S. and Germany respectively consider an electrified vehicle purchase today,” the report says.

Faraday Future’s FF 91 prototype electric crossover unveiled during a press event for CES 2017 in Las Vegas. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

Considering before rejecting is clearly better than outright dismissal.

The report did acknowledge consumer doubts.

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