5th Update, Sunday 7:27 AM: Refresh for updates …Cars 3 dipped 7% on Saturday for an estimated $18.1M now bringing its opening weekend to $53.5M per Disney. That’s the 16th Pixar film to open at No. 1.
While that’s the lowest opening stateside in the Cars series, it should be noted that this movie typically plays younger evident in its G-rating (that’s why they call it a handholder pic, because the kids that attend need their hands held by their parents) versus the PG-fare of other Pixar films which also play to adults with their clever sense of humor and/or big sociological or philosophical themes (i.e. Wall-E, Inside Out). Seventy-five percent of Cars 3‘s attendees were families per Disney. ComScore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak drills down to show 54% kids to 17% parents in attendance with those under 7 repping 19% of the kid population. Twenty percent were between the ages of 10-12, while those between 7-9 repped 14%.
Nonetheless, as we mentioned previously, Cars 3 is about Disney continually maintaining a big pic series and its ancillaries, in this case one which is fully propped by $10 billion-plus in global merchandising sales. It’s essential for them to keep playing Cars to each new generation of kids.
“This is a very important franchise for the company. The story and new characters are very gratifying and it’s exciting to have a new generation of Cars fans,” said Disney distribution chief Dave Hollis.
According to PostTrak, guys under 25 where the biggest draw here at 29% followed by women under 25 at 26%. 82% positive overall is good. Cars 3 marks the 18th straight A CinemaScore for a Pixar movie. Disney is very encouraged by the pic’s exit polls, Cars 3‘s CinemaScore being an improvement on the previous sequel’s A-, not to mention the threequel’s reviews are better. Parents love the movie too, and the studio hopes they’ll continue to champion the movie. Cars generated the biggest multiple and stateside gross in the trilogy with a 4x off its $60.1M opening and a final of $244M off its A score. Cars 2 had a 2.89 multiple off its $66.1M debut for a final of $191.45M. Illumination/Universal’s threequel Despicable Me 3 arrives in 12 days with an expected three-day of $85M-$90M; again that’s a different type of animated film that appeals to a much older crowd as well in its belly laugh comedy.
Warner Bros. is reporting Wonder Woman with a $40.77M third weekend, which as we mentioned earlier is the second best third weekend ever for the studio behind 2008’s Dark Knight ($42.66M) and far ahead of Batman v. Superman ($23.3M) and Suicide Squad ($20.9M). Saturday was up a huge 45% over Friday for $15.8M. Wonder Woman looks to count $274.6M by the end of today, and she’s still counting the lionshare of female business, slowing down other female-skewing titles like Sony’s misfire Rough Night which fell 16% for $2.8M on its way to an industry-estimated $8.05M opening in 7th place.
Gal Gadot’s husband Jaron Varsano tweeted out this photo on Instagram over the weekend:
A post shared by JaronVarsano (@jaronvarsano) on Jun 15, 2017 at 11:45am PDT
Lionsgate’s Code Black Film’s All Eyez On Me was front-loaded on Friday due to Tupac Shakur’s birthday seeing an opening day of $12.8M. The industry got very excited and started projecting an opening weekend that was well north of $30M. Lionsgate always had a sense that the movie’s fate lied in the mid $20M range, and that’s what we’re apt to see with a three-day at $27M in 3rd place after a Saturday that was -40% from Friday with $7.67M. Still that number is very good, and above the tracking which everyone was seeing last week which was between $15M-$22M.
There was an unprecedented amount of advance ticket sales for this movie. Straight Outta Compton by comparison had a bulk of walk-up business. Code Black agreed to handle the movie back in January and following the trailer for All Eyez On Me
Entertainment Studios’ 47 Meters Down remains steady in its estimates for an estimated fifth place take of $10.65M with Saturday down 14% from Friday with $3.7M. Entertainment Studios is calling the weekend opening at $11.5M. Given the This Is Us halo of Mandy Moore, plus the fact that it’s a tried-and-true shark thriller genre, 47 Meters Down along with Wonder Woman assisted in pulling females away from Rough Night. “We are very happy with our first wide release, 47 Meters Down. The movie is perfect for the summer, and an absolute crowd-pleaser as indicated by our outstanding per-screen average,” said Entertainment Studios Founder, Chairman and CEO Byron Allen this morning.
4th writethru, Saturday AM: It’s a no brainer that Disney/Pixar’s Cars 3 is leading at the box office, but the more interesting tale this weekend is the counter-programming, specifically Lionsgate Code Black/Morgan Creek’s Tupac Shakur biopic All Eyez on Me which has willed itself to existence on the big screen after six years and four director attachments to finally open on the late rapper’s 46th birthday, taking a third place of $31.2M.
All Eyez on Me is also benefiting from its play in 200 premium large format theaters, which is included in its overall 2,471 theater count.
It doesn’t look like All Eyez On Me will defeat Warner Bros./DC’s Wonder Woman for second place, now estimated at an eye-popping $40M, a 32% dip. Nonetheless, All Eyez on Me‘s bigger story is how it’s blowing its $15M-$22M projections away.
By the way, in regards to Wonder Woman, that’s the second best third weekend haul ever for a Warner Bros. movie after The Dark Knight ($42.6M). By the end of tomorrow, Wonder Woman with an estimated $273.8M will be pacing 4% ahead of Suicide Squad which ended its domestic run at $325M.
Cars 3‘s Friday has simmered down to an estimated $19.6M (including Thursday night’s $2.8M) putting its weekend debut at $51.8M. That lower figure can obviously be attributed to threequel-itis, however, the big picture on all these Cars movies is its merchandising revenue which continues to swell with each installment. Current estimates figure that Cars retail sales stand well north of $10 billion. Audiences loved Cars 3 with an A CinemaScore, which is more than Cars 2 (A-) and as much as Cars (A). That grade marks the 18th A CinemScore in a row for Pixar. There’s a lot of business to be had here from Saturday matinees and Father’s Day Sunday.
Meanwhile, in a reversal of fortune between a major studio and an indie, Sony’s R-rated Scarlett Johansson comedy ensemble Rough Night has been pulled underwater by Byron Allen’s Entertainment Studios’ Mandy Moore shark thriller 47 Meters Down, $8.7M to $10.7M. Who would have thought? Audiences loathe both titles giving 47 Meters Down a C CinemaScore, and Rough Night a C+. PostTrak isn’t any better with both movies respectively landing notorious 55% and 66% positive scores.
Fandango had a keen sense that All Eyez on Me was going to blow past its tracking estimates when advance ticket sales began picking up closer to the film’s release date. On Thursday and Friday, All Eyez on Me was the No. 2 ticket seller behind Cars 3 on Fandango. All Eyez is a review-proof movie, something we don’t see that often in the Rotten Tomatoes era (24% Rotten), with audiences embracing the Tupac movie with an A- CinemaScore and an 82% positive score on Screen Engine/ComScore’s PostTrak. Fifty-four percent of All Eyez audience were men with 68% over 25. African Americans repped 47% of the audience, Hispanics 25% and Caucasians 19%. The buzz among audiences is actor Demetrius Shipp Jr.’s uncanny resemblance to the real Tupac.
To recap All Eyez On Me‘s climb: Morgan Creek announced back in Feb. 2011 that they were developing and financing a Tupac Shakur movie after settling with Amaru Entertainment (the label founded by Tupac’s late mother, Afeni Shakur) to get the rapper’s life rights. Antoine Fuqua was set to direct off a script by Steven Bagatourian, Stephen J. Rivele, and Christopher Wilkinson. Production was to begin in Sept. 2013 with Emmett/Furla/Oasis Films financing and co-producing the $45M production cost. Ed Gonzalez and Jeremy Haft were then attached to write the latest draft.
In Feb. 2014, John Singleton boarded to direct and a few months later, Open Road Film would announce that it was taking domestic distribution rights on the title. A year later, Singleton would announce his departure from the project on Instagram saying “The reason I am not making this picture is because the people involved aren’t really respectful of the legacy of Tupac Amaru Shakur.” Carl Franklin was next in line to direct. By late October 2015 Emmett/Furla/Oasis sued Morgan Creek for $10M for breaking their co-production agreement which called for not exceeding a $30M budget, and mutual approval for the lead actor’s selection, budget, production schedule and distribution agreements.
All of this said, Emmett/Furla/Oasis didn’t ultimately fund 50% of the movie, while Morgan Creek didn’t sign the long form of their Open Road domestic deal. Overall, we hear that it was difficult to find a distributor for this film. Morgan Creek was on ticking time clock to make the movie before the end of 2015 or else the music rights would revert back to Afeni Shakur. Even more pressure: Universal’s N.W.A. biopic Straight Outta Compton came out in August 2015 and was an immediate hit amassing $201.6M worldwide. By late November 2015, Morgan Creek selected music video director Benny Boom as the director for the Tupac biopic. Production began in Atlanta in mid-December 2015 and lasted through April 2016 in Las Vegas.
Lionsgate’s Codeblack Films, which has a P&A deal here on All Eyez on Me, launched the teaser trailer on John Wick 2 back in February. The distributor worked with the City of Oakland to have June 16, 2017 declared Tupac Day in celebration of the movie’s opening. Pic is receiving widespread praise from the talent community including Straight Outta Compton and Fate of the Furious director F. Gary Gray, boxing legend Floyd Mayweather, Chance The Rapper, Sean Combs, The Game, 2 Chains, Digital Underground’s Money B and Tupac’s former manager Atron Gregory.
Through its targeted social marketing campaign, Codeblack gathered a pool of 40M highly engaged fans who were the focus of the label’s efforts to drive ticket sales for opening weekend. RelishMix weighs All Eyez on Me‘s social media universe across Facebook, Twitter, Instragram and YouTube views at 100.2M, double a typical drama’s social count which is close to 49M. On Thursday night there were simultaneous promotional screenings held in 28 markets. Each screening included a host and celebrity/social media influencers including Ed Lover, Jeezy, Demetrius Shipp, Jr. Bun B, Benny Boom, 2 Live Crew’s Uncle Luke, and Sway
It would seem that the confluence of Scarlett Johansson, SNL star Kate McKinnon, and a script by Broad City EPs Lucia Aniello and Paul W. Downs for a $20M budgeted R-rated comedy would be the quintessential greenlight for any major studio. That’s quite a deal and Sony believed there was potential in Aniello and Downs’ script; that’s why they won it out in a bidding war two years ago.
So, why then is Rough Night having it so tough?
RelishMix’s observation of the negative social chatter: “Moviegoers are confused by the comedy element of actually killing a man – ‘where’s the joke?’, they ask.” No kidding, because many blame Rough Night‘s black comedy set-up of stripper killing as its primary hurdle in hooking more crowds. Not to mention, the whole party hardy movie comedy subgenre has overstayed its welcome at the B.O. in the wake of The Hangover with Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising ($55.4M) and Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates ($46M domestic) both tanking last year. Rough Night‘s 53% Rotten Tomatoes score isn’t unfair: The movie is bogged down in cliche, has a manatee’s comedic pace, and feels like an also-ran hybrid of Bridesmaids meets Weekend at Bernie’s.
Rough Night will not leg out because it’s nothing special that female audiences haven’t seen before. Despite the low production cost of $20M, many estimate the pic’s P&A at $35M, and this start doesn’t spell for a breakeven situation down the road. Sony was hoping to profit here in the way that they did with such low budget fare as Don’t Breathe, The Shallows and Sausage Party last summer, but Rough Night isn’t it. On to Baby Driver which currently is floating a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score off 24 reviews. In regards to Johansson’s overseas star power rescuing Rough Night abroad, that’s not definite. As a comedy, Rough Night needs to work in the U.S./Canada first and foremost since the genre at best can only be counted on for 50% of its domestic haul at the overseas box office. Rough Night is also hurt by the fact that Wonder Woman continues to remain the prevailing choice among females. Rough Night is also losing some younger females to 47 Meters Down. Both titles are pulling in close to a third of all women under 25, though Rough Night has more older females (38%) than 47 Meters Down (23%). CinemaScore also shows a slight overlap between both titles for older women: 47 Meters Down with 57% women, 51% over 25; and Rough Night with 69% female, 80% over 25.
CinemaScore also shows that women were nicer on Rough Night than guys (69% gave it a B-), while 32% turned up because of Johansson. That’s just under the 39% who bought tickets to watch the actress in the disaster Ghost in the Shell, and that even made more during opening weekend with $18.7M. By comparison, 35% of those moviegoers watching 47 Meters Down went because of Mandy Moore and Claire Holt.
By comparison, rivals are more impressed by 47 Meters Down. They expected that movie, which Entertainment Studios picked up from Dimension for high single digits last summer, to completely bomb in the low single digit range. “They will likely make a few bucks at the end of the day,” remarked one rival studio executive Friday night about Entertainment Studios’ prospects with 47 Meters Down.
Focus Features also has Colin Trevorrow’s child drama The Book of Henry out in 579 theaters about a genius kid who learns that something’s up with his girl friend’s stepfather next door, and aims to solve the problem. At one point, the label was considering an awards run for this, but then realized it didn’t have the goods. Critics have piled on top of the movie saying Henry is a manipulative weepie that’s a watered-down version of Spielberg movies (25% Rotten). Those bad reviews are slowing this pic’s traction among older audiences with a $1.65M opening. Focus fared better with The Zookeeper’s Wife which made $3.3M at a similar amount of theaters, 521, earlier this spring.
Weekend box office for June 16-18 per industry estimates on Saturday AM:
1.). Cars 3 (DIS), 4.256 theaters / $19.6M Fri. (includes $2.8M previews) /3-day cume: $51.8M/Wk 1
2.). Wonder Woman (WB), 4,018 theaters (-147)/ $10.8M Fri./3-day cume: $40M (-32%)/Total:$273.8M/ Wk 3
3.). All Eyez On Me (LG), 2,471 theaters / $12.8M Fri. (includes $3.1M) /3-day cume: $31.2M/Wk 1
4.). The Mummy (Uni), 4.034 theaters (-1) / $3.8M Fri. (-68%) /3-day cume: $13.5M (-57%)/Total: $56.1M/Wk 2
5.). 47 Meters Down (ENT), 2,270 theaters / $4.3M Fri. (includes $735k) /3-day cume: $10.7M/Wk 1
6.). Rough Night (SONY), 3,162 theaters / $3.3M Fri. (includes $700k) /3-day cume: $8.7M/Wk 1
7.). Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (DIS), 2,759 theaters (-920)/ $2.3M Fri./3-day cume: $8.5M (-21%)/Total:$150.1M/ Wk 4
8.). Captain Underpants (DWA/20TH), 2,968 theaters (-561)/ $2.1M Fri. (-40%) /3-day cume: $7.3M (-40%)/Total: $57.9M/Wk 3
9.). Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (DIS), 1,813 theaters (-1,098) / $1.2M Fri. (-27%)/3-day cume: $4.8M (-23%)/Total:$374.7m/ Wk 7
10.). It Comes at Night (A24), 2,450 theaters (-83) / $822K Fri (-67%) /3-day cume: $2.45M (-59%) /Total:$10.8M/ Total: Wk 2
Megan Leavey (BST), 1,832 theaters (-124) / $668K Fri (-46%) /3-day cume: $2.4M (-36%) /Total:$8.3M/ Total: Wk 2
The Book of Henry (FOC), 579 theaters / $509k Fri. /3-day cume: $1.65M/Wk 1
2nd Update, 12:38PM: Disney’s Cars 3 will lead today with an estimated $21M based off of matinees, which is higher than the $19.7M that 2006’s Cars made on day one and just under the $25.7m that Cars 2 deposited. One industry estimate sees the Pixar film at $57.5M, but with Saturday matinees and Father’s Day, plus its fresh reviews, it won’t be a surprise to see Cars 3 pace past $60M.
Lionsgate Code Black/Morgan Creek’s All Eyez on Me is very strong and could send Wonder Woman to the No. 3 spot for the weekend. Both are respectively at $35M and $37.5M as of right now, but the notion is that the Tupac Shakur movie could pull ahead. Most of tracking saw All Eyez in the low $20M for the weekend, but one rival major studio’s estimates saw the film at $25M-$30M given the pic’s momentum in advance ticket sales. Those projections were considered to be too aggressive, but now they’re more than a reality. Today is Tupac’s birthday (he would have been 46) and Lionsgate is wisely harnessing the rapper’s fanbase by opening All Eyez today.
There’s also a draw at the weekend box office between Entertainment Studios’ 47 Meters Down and Sony’s Rough Night which are each looking at between $10M-$11M over three-days per industry estimates. The Mandy Moore-Claire Holt-Matthew Modine shark thriller is slightly ahead of the Scarlett Johansson romp film, $4.25M to $4M today. 47 Meters Down made more than Rough Night last night, $735K to $700K, and those figures are rolled into both titles opening day figures. Reviews for 47 Meters Down have settled down in the 54% Rotten range. 47 Meters Down has the added benefit of being a PG-13 genre film, which is an easy grab for those younger women who may not be able to get into Rough Night auditoriums.
1st Update, 8:12AM: Lionsgate’s Code Black Films/Morgan Creek’s All Eyez on Me led all films previewing last night with $3.1M. The pic was in play in 2,000 theaters and expands to 2,471 today.
The Tupac Shakur biopic directed by Benny Boom has been a hot ticket in advance sales, ultimately ranking as the second for Fandango yesterday, and remaining in that spot today. The $40M financed movie from Morgan Creek is expected to gross between $20M-$23M. One comp being used here is Think Like a Man Too which made $1.8M on its Thursday night before opening to $29.2M for the weekend. All Eyez on Me is a P&A deal for Lionsgate, meaning they put up the P&A and would recoup a little more of the backend (versus a service deal whereby a distributor gets a fee). Voltage handled foreign sales on All Eyez on Me.
Disney/Pixar’s Cars 3 began its weekend last night with $2.8M, a figure that’s above the preview cash for Monsters University ($2.6M) and just under Inside Out ($3.7M). Early tracking during the week had Cars 3 in the high $50M-low $60M, which on the high end would park it near the openings of its predecessors, Cars ($60.1M) and Cars 2 ($66.1M). Off its preview night, Monsters University, which was rated G just like Cars 3, went on to make $30.5M in its first day and a massive $82.4M opening. Father’s Day on Sunday is a big money moviegoing time for Pixar, and they typically program their releases around it. Cars 3 has better reviews (62% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) than Cars 2 (39% Rotten), but is still under the 74% certified fresh of the original’s 2006 chapter.
Sony’s female party hardy film Rough Night directed and co-written by Broad City EP Lucia Aniello drew $700K last night in previews at 2,503 theaters. That’s exactly how much Warner Bros./MGM’s raunchy female comedy How to Be Single drew in its Thursday night previews and that movie went on to make $5.25M on its opening day, with an opening weekend (juiced by Valentine’s Day Sunday) of $17.8M. Sony is looking at low teens for this Scarlett Johansson ensemble comedy, others believe Rough Night is coming in between $10M-$12M. The studio made a point to keep this film on a low, strict budget with an estimated cost of $20M with a thrifty digital P&A spend. LStar Capital has a 25% stake in the film. Rough Night and How to Be Single had similar Rotten Tomatoes Scores (50% Rotten and 47% Rotten, respectively). Next to other party movies, Rough Night‘s Thursday night is beneath Bad Moms ($2M), Neighbors ($2.5M) and Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising ($1.67M).
The last time Disney had Pixar’s Cars 2 dominating the box office back in late June 2011, Sony counter-programmed with a female-skewing R-rated pic, Cameron Diaz’s Bad Teacher. That $20M movie actually overperformed with an opening of $31.6M and final domestic north of $100M. Reviews were even lower than Rough Night‘s at 44% Rotten, but that was at a time when the aggregate site didn’t have the power of a Roman Emperor, dictating the financial fates of movies.
Entertainment Studios’ shark thriller 47 Meters Down starring Matthew Modine, Claire Holt and Mandy Moore is debuting in 2,300 locations this weekend. Tracking has the movie in the low single digits. The Byron Allen studio acquired the Dimension title last summer for high single digits.
Warner Bros./DC’s Wonder Woman was the top film yesterday with $6M at 4,165 theaters, and a two-week running cume of $233.8M. The movie is expected to ease around 40% for a third weekend take in the neighborhood of $35.1M.