China Aims To Be No. 1 Globally In EVs, Autonomous Cars By 2030 – Forbes

Posted: Thursday, December 15, 2016
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A Chinese consumer checks out the Raeton, Changan’s autonomous car, at the Beijing Auto Show in April, 2016. The Raeton completed a 1,200 mile trip from Chongqing to Beijing earlier this year.

Move over Detroit, Tokyo, Seoul and Wolfsburg.

China aims to race ahead of everyone in electrics and autonomous vehicles, according to a massive new planning document that surfaced last week in Beijing.

Pure electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (China calls them “new energy vehicles” or NEVs) are expected to account for 40 percent of 38 million sales in 2030, or about 15 million units.

Imagine: 15 million electric vehicles! America’s entire vehicle market this year – with record low interest rates and sky-high incentives – will reach just 17 million.

China has ambitious plans for autonomous vehicles, too. “Partially-autonomous” cars (think driver assist) are to account for 50 percent of sales by 2020. “Highly-automated” cars (not quite fully autonomous) will take 15 percent of sales in 2025. By 2030, fully autonomous vehicles are expected to feature in 10 percent of sales. Thats’s 4 million completely robo cars annually.

China also plans for breakthroughs, but not world leadership, in emissions. In 2020, the average fuel economy will be 5 liters per 100 kilometers. That ratio will go 4 liters per 100km in 2025 and 3.2 liters per 100km in 2030.

The European Union targets 4.1 liters per 100km by 2020.

These are the key takeaways from a 450-page draft plan published last week  by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and China’s Society of Automotive Engineers. The Chinese-language  document is called “The Technology Road Map For Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles. ( I would like to thank Fei Meng from the University of California-Davis’ Institute of Transportation Studies for distilling the most crucial numbers).

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