Analysts Expect A Slight Drop In June Auto Sales, But Not To Worry – Forbes

Posted: Monday, June 30, 2014

Forecasts for U.S. auto sales in June are down slightly, but analysts are still optimistic for the year as a whole because the reasons for the June fall-off don’t affect the overall momentum towards improving auto sales.

Notably, there’s a statistical glitch in the calendar, with two fewer official “selling days” – that is, when most dealerships are open for business allowing for Sundays and holidays — in June 2014 vs. June 2013, according to AutoData Corp., Woodcliff Lake, N.J.

Controlling for fewer selling days, on average the daily selling rate was actually up in June 2014, according to Automakers report June sales on Tuesday, July 1., Santa Monica, Calif., said it expects June sales to fall 3.1 percent compared with June 2013. Kelly Blue Book, Irvine, Calif., had a similar forecast. Kelly Blue Book said last week it expects June sales of about 1.36 million, down 2.7 percent from June 2013.

For the first half of 2014, that would be a total of 8.1 million units, an increase of 3.5 percent from a year ago, Kelly Blue Book said.

Silicon Valley Auto Group, Los Gatos, CA, U.S....

Silicon Valley Auto Group, Los Gatos, CA, U.S.A., Bugatti Veyron (Photo credit: aldenjewell)

The Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate – an estimate of what sales would be for the entire year, based on one month’s worth of sales — for June works out to 16.3 million according to Kelly Blue Book. That would make June the third month out of the last four with a SAAR above 16 million, Kelly Blue Book said.

Separately, said it expects a June SAAR of 16.4 million, based on estimated June sales of about 1.4 million, also based in Santa Monica, said it expects June sales to be up 1 percent vs. June 2013.

U.S. auto sales totaled 15.6 million in 2013, the fourth year of the present recovery. U.S. auto sales are still coming back from bottoming out at only 10.4 million in 2009.

That was the lowest per-capita auto sales since World War II, and a result that drove Chrysler and GM into bankruptcy restructuring. Ford Motor Co. avoided bankruptcy, but it had a close call, too.


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